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State-level drivers of future fine particulate matter mortality in the United States
Citation:
Ou, Y., S. Smith, J. West, C. Nolte, AND D. Loughlin. State-level drivers of future fine particulate matter mortality in the United States. ABaCAS Meeting, Hangzhou, CHINA, May 21 - 22, 2019.
Impact/Purpose:
Presented at the ABaCAS meeting, to be held May 21-22. 2019 in Hangzhou. China. If you need further info about the conference: http://www.abacas-dss.com/Conference2019/GeneralInfo.aspx
Description:
Fuel combustion adversely affects air quality and human health by contributing to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations in the United States. Future PM2.5 concentrations and health impacts will be largely determined by factors such as energy use, emission controls, state and national policies, and demographics. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is a human-earth system model of the US and global economy, energy system, buildings, transportation, land use, and climate system. GCAM-USA is an extension of GCAM in which US energy supply and demand markets are disaggregated to state-level resolution. State-specific PM2.5 mortality impact coefficients are incorporated into GCAM-USA, accounting for the spatial heterogeneity of pollutant transport and chemistry, population, and baseline mortality rates. In this study, we examine the evolution of the energy system and emissions under current energy and environmental policies. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index approach is then applied to evaluate the contributions of different emission sectors in each state to overall PM2.5 mortality. Understanding these contributions will aid in more effectively reducing PM2.5 mortality. Modeling results show that US PM2.5 mortality are estimated to decrease by 25% from 2015 to 2050, primarily driven by decreases in energy intensity (energy consumption per unit GDP) and decreases in PM2.5 mortality per unit consumption of electric sector coal and transportation liquids. These factors, in turn, are primarily a result of technology improvements and air pollutant emission regulations. Furthermore, the results suggest that states with greater population and economic growth, but with fewer clean energy resources, are more likely to face significant challenges in reducing PM2.5 mortality into the future. In contrast, states with the largest projected decreases in mortality have smaller projected increases in population and per capita GDP and greater decreases in electric sector coal share and PM2.5 mortality intensity.
