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State-level contributors to present and future fine particulate matter health costs in the United States
Citation:
Ou, Y., W. Shi, S. Smith, J. West, Chris Nolte, AND Dan Loughlin. State-level contributors to present and future fine particulate matter health costs in the United States. 2018 Community Modeling and Analysis System (CMAS) Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 22 - 24, 2018.
Impact/Purpose:
This presentation describes progress toward implementing spatially-refined factors relating pollutant emissions to PM2.5 concentrations, and hence mortality impacts, into the GCAM-USA model. The goal of this study is to enable screening analysis of state-level strategies for air quality management.
Description:
Fossil fuel combustion adversely affects air quality and human health by contributing to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations in the United States. Future PM2.5 concentrations will be determined by energy use, emission controls, state and national policies, and other factors. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is a human-earth system model that analyzes the US and global economy, energy system, buildings, transportation, land use, and climate system. GCAM-USA is an extension of GCAM in which US energy supply and demand markets are disaggregated to state-level resolution. In previous work, we have integrated national-level year-, pollutant- and sector-specific PM2.5 mortality cost factors into GCAM-USA. These national-average factors, in units of dollars-per-ton, translate nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and direct PM2.5 emissions into PM2.5 mortality costs using relationships derived through air quality and health effects modeling. The temporal trend of these factors accounted for national-level changes in population and economic growth. In this study, we improve upon that work by applying PM2.5 mortality cost factors that are differentiated by state, accounting for the spatial heterogeneity of population patterns and baseline mortality rates. We demonstrate this new representation by examining the evolution of the energy system and emissions under a reference scenario shaped by current energy and environmental policies. Here we seek to understand this landscape more fully, with the goal of providing state-specific insights that will aid in more effectively reducing PM2.5 mortality. For example, preliminary results show that SO2 emissions from conventional coal-fired power plants were the largest contributor to national total PM2.5 mortality in 2015. However, the contributions from industrial sector coal use increase significantly from 2015 to 2050, which will be examined further. While the leading contributor to PM2.5 mortality varies by region in 2015, industry is the leading contributor for almost all regions in 2050. Differences between 2015 and 2050 are mainly driven by state-specific technology portfolios and air quality regulations.
