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Plausible energy scenarios in TIMES for use in robust decision making
Citation:
Brown, K. AND C. Lenox. Plausible energy scenarios in TIMES for use in robust decision making. Energy and Society in Transition, Tempe, AZ, May 28 - 31, 2019.
Impact/Purpose:
The energy system is the primary source of most air pollutant emissions, which contribute to poor air quality and negative impacts on human health. There is uncertainty about future emissions, which complicates air quality management planning. This work extends previous use of scenario planning that was done in the MARKAL model to the TIMES model, which will be an important planning tool moving forward. This work will be of interest to those analyzing future air quality management strategies using an energy systems model. Such groups may include universities, NGOs, and regional or federal air quality management groups.
Description:
The energy system is the primary source of most air pollution emissions. As the energy system evolves in the future, society’s ability to maintain air quality will be affected. There is inherent uncertainty in predicting future energy demand, fuel use, and technology adoption. We apply the outputs of a Scenario Planning process to an energy system model to address this uncertainty and quantify possible future outcomes. Previous stakeholder engagement suggested technological progress and social attitudes toward the environment are both highly-critical and uncertain factors for managing air quality given their role in determining future energy use and associated emissions. Combining a range of assumptions about the pace of technological change and environmental attitudes yields a matrix of four scenarios that encompass a wide range of outcomes. These scenarios will help evaluate the future energy system while accounting for uncertainty. We implement these scenarios in the U.S. EPA TIMES model. Results suggest that both shifting attitudes and technology transformation may lead to emission reductions relative to present, even without additional policies. The figure presents primary energy inputs in 2045 for each of the four scenarios. Differences in fuel choice as well as efficiency and overall energy demand are important factors for determining future emissions, but are also uncertain factors. This scenario methodology allows us to test how human behavior and technology will impact energy technology and fuel choices in the future. The benefit of this approach is that the scenarios can be utilized with other modelling approaches, creating multiple baselines upon which to model the impact of a new technology or policy. These scenarios provide a base upon which to investigate both changes in the energy system as well as the related emissions.