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State-level determinants of fine particulate matter mortality change between 2015 and 2050 (November)
Citation:
Ou, Y., S. Smith, J. West, Chris Nolte, AND Dan Loughlin. State-level determinants of fine particulate matter mortality change between 2015 and 2050 (November). PM and related pollutants in a changing world, RTP,NC, November 28 - 29, 2018.
Impact/Purpose:
This research involves the development of models and application of analytical methods to examine challenges for air quality management in the coming decades. Here, we apply the GCAM-USA model to estimate future state-level mortality costs associated with particulate matter. We then group states into (i) states with constantly declining mortality costs over time, and (ii) those where mortality costs eventually begin to rise. A statistical technique is used to identify the differences between these two sets of states. The results indicates that states with an upturn in mortality costs are more sensitive to population changes and have a lower response to fuel switching in the electric sector. While these results provide only an initial step in this analysis, we believe that the work can provide insight into both future trends and where policies of various types may be more effective in promoting future air quality.
Description:
Despite great success in reducing air pollutant emissions over the past 30 years, nearly 40% of the U.S. population still lives in areas designated as non-attainment or in "maintenance" for one or more National Ambient Air Quality Standards. The purpose of this presentation is to demonstrate how the Global Change Assessment Model with U.S. state-level resolution (GCAM-USA) can be used to project air pollutant emissions and impacts through 2050, examining the effects of factors such as population growth, economic growth, and technology change. In addition, a technique called Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) will be applied to identify key factors that influence future PM2.5 mortality at the state level.