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State-level determinants of fine particulate matter mortality change between 2015 and 2050
Citation:
Ou, Y., S. Smith, J. West, Chris Nolte, AND Dan Loughlin. State-level determinants of fine particulate matter mortality change between 2015 and 2050. GCAM Community Modeling Meeting, College Park,MD, October 16 - 17, 2018.
Impact/Purpose:
The purpose of this poster is to present research evaluating the primary factors that may be expected to contribute to increases or decreases in pm-related mortality in the coming decades. Ultimately, this information may be of use to air quality planners as they seek to anticipate threats to future air quality and design proactive management strategies.
Description:
In this poster, ORISE participant Yang Ou is presenting initial results from an assessment of the factors that would lead to increases or decreases in state-level fine PM mortality costs. He has integrated PM mortality factors into the GCAM-USA human-earth systems model. With these, the model is used to develop state-level projections of mortality costs through 2050. Based upon the 2050 costs, the states are divided into three groups: those with greater than 10% increase in mortality costs, those with more than a 10% decrease in mortality costs, and all those in between. He then uses a technique called Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to identify the key factors driving the results. Changes in population and in Gross Domestic Product per capita. Change in energy consumption per GDP, a measure of energy efficiency, is the largest contributor to PM mortality decreases. Changes in population and in PM mortality associated with coal combustion have very different responses in increasing and decreasing mortality states.