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SETAC Book Review - LET THE EVIDENCE SPEAK: USING BAYESIAN THINKING IN LAW, MEDICINE, ECOLOGY AND OTHER AREAS
Citation:
CARRIGER, J. SETAC Book Review - LET THE EVIDENCE SPEAK: USING BAYESIAN THINKING IN LAW, MEDICINE, ECOLOGY AND OTHER AREAS. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management. Wiley, Medford, MA, 15(1):165-166, (2019). https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.4109
Impact/Purpose:
Provide a review of a book that could be of interest to readers of Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management journal. Let the Evidence Speak by Alan Jessop provides a clear and enjoyable discussion of how evidence and Bayesian reasoning go hand in hand. This book makes Bayes accessible by explaining why it is useful to know what Bayes’ Rule is, how it can be used to solve problems, both simple and complex, and how to communicate Bayesian reasoning to a broad audience. Bayes’ Rule is not just an equation for statisticians or data miners; it is “a way of thinking,” as Jessop states, that helps determine how the available evidence can revise previous beliefs in a hypothesis. This book explains how Bayesian thinking is useful for many different types of problems, from the everyday to the uncommon. Overall, the case studies and discussions provide a useful introduction on the advantages of Bayesian thinking and Bayes’ Rule when weighing evidence.
Description:
The book is well written and well organized, making it an enjoyable read for both novices and advanced Bayesian practitioners. Jessop gently introduces the components of Bayes’ theorem in a manner that makes the reader forget she is learning about a mathematical formula. Rather than jumping into Bayes’ theorem as an overarching paradigm, Jessop initially focuses on 1 part of the equation that binds Bayesian and classical analysis—estimating and interpreting likelihoods. The chosen examples and descriptions in this and other sections are a strong draw and enhance understanding of the more advanced technical subjects. The book moves into Bayes’ theorem by introducing the assumption of equal base rate probabilities. Incorporating prior knowledge with Bayes’ theorem is elucidated through base rates or contextual probabilities with medical case studies (e.g., patient history). The discussion includes cases in which base rates are wrongfully ignored and in which they are difficult to estimate. In the final sections, case studies from different fields are provided as applications of Bayesian analysis including archaeology (carbon dating), document analysis (authorship determination), and forestry. The emphasis is on the foundation provided in earlier chapters and its relevance to more complex problems, but advanced concepts are introduced, such as change point analysis, parameter estimation, and model testing. The final section provides an example around a deceptively simple psychological puzzle of how Bayesian analysis (and information theory) can still provide insights when problems are fuzzy and probabilities are difficult to estimate.
URLs/Downloads:
DOI: SETAC Book Review - LET THE EVIDENCE SPEAK: USING BAYESIAN THINKING IN LAW, MEDICINE, ECOLOGY AND OTHER AREAS