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Size, age, sex, and/or stage: Developing structured population models for ecotoxicology
Citation:
Pollesch, N. Size, age, sex, and/or stage: Developing structured population models for ecotoxicology. Augsburg University Mathematics Seminar, Minneapolis, MN, November 14, 2018.
Impact/Purpose:
Mathematical models are useful tools to support environmental decision making. They can be used for prediction and to explore outcomes of theoretical relationships. The desired output in addition to the form of empirical data can be used to determine mathematical formulation of the model. Structured population modeling seeks to use an observable trait or set of traits, such as size, age, sex, and/or stage, within the population that are strongly linked to demography in order to determine outcomes of simulated scenarios. This talk addresses approaches to developing structured population models to support ecological risk assessment that leverage available toxicity measurements linked to demography in order to help explore the effects of chemicals on wildlife populations.
Description:
Americans use approximately 2 billion tons of pesticides each year. These chemicals can have adverse effects on wildlife. When it comes to wildlife, populations are often the level at which environmental protection goals are established. However, empirical observations of population-level response to chemical stressors are scarce (thankfully). Mathematical models are used to bridge the gap between available observations and desired endpoints by utilizing theoretical relationships. Many theoretical relationships link observed responses to characteristics of individuals, such as their size, age, sex, or developmental stage. Structured population models use these individual-level characteristics to determine population level outcomes. In this talk I will present approaches to structured population modeling and show how integral projection models can be used for size-structured population modeling to support ecological risk assessment