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Developing integral projection models for aquatic ecotoxicology.
Citation:
Pollesch, N., M. Etterson, K. Flynn, AND S. Kadlec-Groom. Developing integral projection models for aquatic ecotoxicology. SETAC North America, Sacramento, CA, November 04 - 08, 2018.
Impact/Purpose:
There is a necessary gap between laboratory derived toxicity measures and ecologically-scaled outcomes from chemical exposure. Population-level ecological risk assessment uses mathematical and statistical structures to encode relationships between standard laboratory toxicity data and population level endpoints of regulatory concern. The Fish Translator integral projection model is a new tool for ecotoxicological modeling that takes traditional matrix population modeling a step further by developing and utilizing size-dependent relationships to aid in extrapolating both acute and chronic effects observed in laboratory studies to relevant ecological scales.
Description:
Extrapolating laboratory measured effects of chemicals to ecologically relevant scales is a fundamental challenge in ecotoxicology. Structured population modeling seeks to utilize data and dynamics linked to a given trait (or traits) of individuals in the population; age-, stage-, and size-structured modeling approaches are common examples. We present integral projection models as a novel and promising approach to structured population modeling within an ecotoxicological context. We demonstrate the flexibility of this approach to integrate chemical and non-chemical stressors into complicated life-histories by showing how our approach can be adapted to accommodate batch-spawning, over-winter survival, and the effects of time-variable exposure scenarios in Fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas). We also discuss how this approach can be adapted to inform the ecological risk assessment of the endangered Delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), by incorporating semelparity and spatially distinct metapopulations for different life-stages.