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A MARKAL-based Analysis to Assess the Role of Natural Gas and Power Plant Retirements for Future Energy Scenarios in the U.S.
Citation:
Bandyopadhyay, R. AND O. Kaplan. A MARKAL-based Analysis to Assess the Role of Natural Gas and Power Plant Retirements for Future Energy Scenarios in the U.S. USAEE Annual Meeting, Houston,TX, November 12 - 15, 2017.
Impact/Purpose:
Historically low prices of natural gas over the past decade and regulations controlling hazardous air pollutant emissions from electricity generating units (EGUs) have increased the competitiveness of natural-gas-fired electric power plants compared to coal-fired units. Direct CO2 and criteria pollutant air emissions from natural gas combined cycle units are relatively lower than the emissions of those pollutants from the use of coal. However, there has been a debate on the impact of upstream methane emissions from extraction, production, and distribution of natural gas. Some researchers have reported that the leakage may range from 1%-11.7% and may offset benefits from lower emissions from natural gas-fired EGUs.While this range helps quantify the uncertainty around impacts of methane leakage from natural gas, the overall impact of leakage rate over a given time horizon depends upon the projected changes in the future of the overall energy system operations and infrastructure. Recent research on air quality studies indicates that social paradigms and technological advancements are two primary drivers of change, especially in the energy system. This study explores the extent of the impact of uncertainties in upstream methane emissions from natural gas on the emission profile from the overall US energy system (consisting of the electric power, transportation, oil and gas, industrial, residential, and commercial sectors of the energy system) by drawing upon alternative future scenarios with different trajectories of energy infrastructure development and system operations, and varying social paradigms. The preliminary results are presented at USAEE Annual meeting in Houston, TX (Nov 12-15, 2017)
Description:
This is a presentation to be given at USAEE Annual Meeting in Houston, TX (Nov 12-15, 2017). The study explores the extent of the impact of uncertainties in upstream methane emissions from natural gas on the emission profile from the overall US energy system (consisting of the electric power, transportation, oil and gas, industrial, residential, and commercial sectors of the energy system) by drawing upon alternative future scenarios with different trajectories of energy infrastructure development and system operations, and varying social paradigms.