The social and ecological transitions of shrinking cities -- San Juan, Puerto Rico as a case study
Citation:
Balogh, S. AND J. Bousquin. The social and ecological transitions of shrinking cities -- San Juan, Puerto Rico as a case study. Boundary Spanning: Advances in Socio-environmental Systems Research (SESYNC) International Symposium, College Park, Maryland, June 11 - 13, 2018.
Impact/Purpose:
This presentation describes a method to investigate the impacts of population loss on human and natural systems and applies it to the city of San Juan, Puerto Rico. This topic fits the themes of the symposium which are Socio-Environmental Systems in Transition and examining the dynamics of persistent and directional change in socio-environmental systems.
Description:
Urban populations continue to increase globally and cities have become the dominant human habitat. However, the growth of cities is not universal. One in six cities globally is losing population. Shrinking cities share common attributes such as decreased household income, reduced property values, and decreased tax revenue. Increasingly sparse population creates inefficiencies and higher costs for infrastructure maintenance and the provision of public amenities. Population losses and economic distress are not equal in all neighborhoods; rather, they are distributed heterogeneously across the landscape. Broader statements about the trajectory of a shrinking city may mask underlying differences in economic, cultural, and environmental impacts as well as the ability of some neighborhoods to be resilient and adaptive to social and environmental disturbances. For example, nutrient loading to waterbodies may vary based on population change and access to sewers. Abandoned homes can lead to changes in green cover due to a lack of landscaping, which can impact water demand and/or the delivery of ecosystem services like flood prevention. Projects to remediate contaminated sites or restore natural areas may be delayed or cancelled. This paper examines the impact of population loss at the city, watershed and neighborhood level in San Juan, Puerto Rico prior to Hurricane Maria. Specifically, I investigate effects on the provision of ecosystem services, material and energy flows, and ecological impacts from 2000 to 2014, using public data and data collected previously in two household surveys, and discuss the potential implications for post-hurricane Maria recovery.