Citation:

Phelps, L. Modeling with Confidence. Modeling Workshop, Edmonton, Alberta, CANADA, March 16 - 17, 2017.

Impact/Purpose:

Keynote address for the Modeling Workshop - Modeling of Cumulative Effects in Integrated Resource Management: Challenges and Opportunities hosted in Canada. This presentation was very general about modeling, but provided a range of programs, tools, and techniques for modelers or those interested in modeling to consider.

Description:

When you turn on the news, what do you hear? Data, information, predictions, and forecasts. Many of the top news stories – not to mention routine reporting’s of the weather and stock market – talk about aggregated information influencing decision making for the environment, human health, risk, economics, and more. The average person might not know how to combine all of the pieces that lead to these decisions, but they have become citizen scientists themselves and are contributing to the information resources at our fingertips to dig a little deeper and say more, as well. Modelers have an awesome task to integrate information from every angle in offering predictions or forecasts to decision makers and citizen scientists for them to accept. Without the collaborative knowledge in working with social scientists, risk assessors, economists, engineers, chemists, policy analysts, among many others, modelers, or those who have a passion for modeling, are ill prepared to carry-out the opportunities their expertise demands for providing relevant day-to-day information. It is critical the modeling community interact regularly, support one another, and pull-in additional expertise for support to promote scientific integrity, consistency, relevance, innovation, efficiency, and more. One way this can be accomplished is through a community of practice (CoP). A CoP provides the opportunity to learn about the exciting modeling related activities ongoing or needed within (or potentially outside of) the community; collaborate with colleagues to solve an issue; learn about new modeling techniques, tools, or opportunities; talk with individuals that use the same language, among other things. Establishing core programs for data management, uncertainty and variability, and collaboration are just a few of the tools needed in the toolbox. Modelers need to communicate and effectively demonstrate confidence for the glimpse they provide all of us for events yet to come.

Record Details: