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Multi-model assessment of air pollution-related premature mortality in Europe and U.S.: Domestic vs. foreign contributions
Citation:
Im, U., J. Brandt, C. Geels, K. Hansen, J. Christensen, M. Andersen, E. Solazzo, I. Kioutsioukis, U. Alyuz, A. Balzarini, R. Baro, R. Bellasio, R. Bianconi, J. Bieser, A. Colette, G. Curci, A. Farrow, J. Flemming, A. Fraser, P. Jimenez-Guerrero, N. Kitwiroon, C. Liang, G. Pirovano, L. Pozzoli, M. Prank, R. Rose, R. Sokhi, P. Tuccella, A. Unal, M. Garcia Vivanco, J. West, G. Yarwood, C. Hogrefe, AND S. Galmarini. Multi-model assessment of air pollution-related premature mortality in Europe and U.S.: Domestic vs. foreign contributions. ITM 2018 - 36th International Technical Meeting on Air Pollution Modelling and its Application, Ottawa, CANADA, May 14 - 18, 2018.
Impact/Purpose:
Estimating the health impacts and associated economic costs of air pollution depends on the characterization of ambient pollutant levels. This study presents an analysis of using simulated levels simulated by multiple modeling groups over North America and Europe for health impact estimates. These simulations were performed by modeling groups participating in the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). The study quantifies the sensitivity of the estimated health impacts to the different modeled pollutant fields and also assesses the sensitivity of these impacts to hypothetical changes in anthropogenic emissions prescribed in the various air quality models.
Description:
The impact of air pollution on premature mortality in Europe and the United States (U.S.) for the year 2010 is modelled by a multi-model ensemble of regional models in the framework of the AQMEII3 project. The gridded surface concentrations of O3, CO, SO2 and PM2.5 from each model are used as input to the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution (EVA) model. Perturbation simulations introducing 20% emission reductions both globally and regionally in Europe, North America and East Asia were performed in order to calculate the local and non-local contributions to premature mortality. The number of premature mortality cases calculated using outputs from different air quality models can vary up to a factor of three in Europe and the United States. Total premature mortality was estimated to be 414 000 in Europe, and 160 000 in the U.S. using multi-model mean pollutant concentrations. In order to estimate the contribution from domestic vs. foreign emissions to premature mortality, the differences between the perturbation scenarios and base case simulation are calculated based on the subset of models that performed all of these simulations. Results showed that a 20% reduction of global anthropogenic emissions avoids 54 000 and 27 500 premature deaths in Europe and the U.S., respectively. A 20% reduction of North American emissions avoids ~1 000 premature deaths in Europe and 25 000 premature deaths in the U.S. while a 20% decrease of emissions within the European source region avoids 47 000 premature deaths in Europe. Reducing the East Asian emission by 20% avoids ~2000 premature deaths in the U.S. These results show that the domestic emissions have the largest impacts on premature death, while foreign sources are a minor contributor to adverse impacts of air pollution.
