Citation:

Babaee, S. AND Dan Loughlin. Exploring the role of natural gas power plants with carbon capture and storage as a bridge to a low-carbon future. CLEAN TECHNOLOGIES AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY. Springer-Verlag, New York, NY, 20(2):379-391, (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-017-1479-x

Impact/Purpose:

Modern natural gas combined-cycle (NGCC) turbines operate at a high efficiency and emit considerably less carbon and other pollutants than the existing stock of fossil fueled generation. Furthermore, NGCC can be retrofit with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), potentially making paired NGCC an attractive component of a robust, long-term energy portfolio. In this manuscript, we use a parametric sensitivity analysis to examine how various technological and contextual factors affect the market potential of NGCC-CCS.

Description:

Natural gas combined-cycle (NGCC) turbines with carbon capture and storage (CCS) can be a promising technology to reduce CO2 emissions in the electric sector. However, the high cost and energy penalties of current carbon capture devices, as well as methane leakage from natural gas extraction and distribution, can pose serious challenges to large scale NGCC-CCS deployment, particularly under stringent greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets. Here, the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model and EPA U.S. nine-region database are employed to examine how market penetration of NGCC-CCS responds to various GHG cap levels, methane leakage rates, and technology assumptions in the U.S. through 2055. National and regional NGCC-CCS adoption are examined across 46 modeled sensitivity runs. The results indicate that a stringent GHG cap leads to lower NGCC-CCS deployment in earlier model time periods, but higher NGCC-CCS adoption in later time periods for mild GHG cap. Of the parameters tested with a 50% GHG cap, methane leakage rate, NGCC-CCS efficiency and CO2 capture rate, and natural gas price are the strongest drivers of NGCC-CCS deployment, in that order. In 2050 and across 46 scenarios, the West South Central Census Division, followed by the East North Central Census Division, have the highest electricity generation from NGCC-CCS, while New England has no NGCC-CCS adoption. The higher adoption of NGCC-CCS results in lower water consumption in all regions and various air pollutants levels depending on the region.

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