You are here:
Establishing Design Storm Values from Climate Models in Coastal Regions: Challenges and Opportunities
Yang, J., M. Liang, Y. Zhao, AND J. Neal. Establishing Design Storm Values from Climate Models in Coastal Regions: Challenges and Opportunities. In Proceedings, EWRI 2017, Sacramento, California, May 21 - 25, 2017. Environmental & Water Resources Institute (EWRI) of ASCE, Reston, VA, 99-99, (2017).
Dynamic interactions of atmospheric and hydrological processes result in large spatiotemporal changes of precipitation and wind speed in coastal storm events under both current and future climates. This variability can impact the design and sustainability of water infrastructure and other environmental assets. We have examined the nature of this challenge and explored the feasibilities of determining future design basis along the U.S. eastern coastal sites. Long-duration historical precipitation datasets, along with wind records, at 14 local USHCN stations are analyzed. Design storm values are determined using sliding time window of the 30-yr and 50-yr duration. The results are compared to the Atlas-14 precipitation design curves and with the design storms derived from the downscaled CMIP5 daily precipitation datasets (1950-2000). We show that Atlas-14 design charts, mostly based on pre-1990 data, sufficiently describe the design storms of the past, but do not describe the high-intensity precipitation of recent years. The 132 CMIP5 climate models and their ensembles also under-estimate the design storms. Similar bias is found in design wind speeds from AOGCM outputs. Based on these results, a post-bias correction procedure is proposed for developing design storm values from CMIP5 and AOGCM projections.
Communication of research results on how to derive hydrological design basis from climate model projections
Record Details:Record Type: DOCUMENT (PAPER IN NON-EPA PROCEEDINGS)
Organization:U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
NATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT RESEARCH LABORATORY
WATER SYSTEMS DIVISION