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Using Multi-media Modeling to Investigate Conditions Leading to Harmful Algal Blooms
Citation:
Garcia, V., C. Nowakowski, M. Astitha, P. Vlahos, E. Cooter, AND C. Tang. Using Multi-media Modeling to Investigate Conditions Leading to Harmful Algal Blooms. 2017 AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA, December 11 - 15, 2017.
Impact/Purpose:
We used the broad range of variables available from these models, representing meteorology, hydrology, atmospheric processes, landscape characteristics, and agriculture management practices, to examine relationships with available dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll α concentrations measured in Lake Erie. We found that inorganic nitrogen (N) fertilizer applied to crops and atmospheric N deposition were the strongest nutrient loading predictors of dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll α concentrations measured in Lake Erie.
Description:
Lake Erie is the twelfth largest lake in the world and provides drinking water to over 11 million people in the United States. 22,720 square miles of varying landcover (e.g., urban, agriculture) drain directly into Lake Erie. Harmful algal blooms (HABs) have historically been an issue in Lake Erie, with events peaking in the late 1960’s to early 1970’s. Several studies have shown that these events were the result of excess phosphorus draining predominantly into the western portion of the lake from agricultural practices occurring in the surrounding watersheds. Phosphorus controls led to recovery of the lake by 1990, but since the mid-1990’s, there has been a resurgence of HAB events, with the largest event on record occurring in 2015. We used linked and coupled physical models to examine relationships among environmental variables across multiple sources and pathways. Because these models link emission sources with meteorology and the pollutant concentrations found in the environment, they shed new light on the complex interactions of these chemicals and chemical mixtures. We used the broad range of variables available from these models, representing meteorology, hydrology, atmospheric processes, landscape characteristics, and agriculture management practices, to examine relationships with available dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll α concentrations measured in Lake Erie. We found that inorganic nitrogen (N) fertilizer applied to crops and atmospheric N deposition were the strongest nutrient loading predictors of dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll α concentrations measured in Lake Erie. Further, we were able to examine the relationships of oxidized and reduced forms of N deposition, and dry and wet N deposition. The results of this analysis will be presented at the conference.
