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Should I use that model? Assessing the transferability of ecological models to new settings
Citation:
DeWitt, Ted, L. Green, J. Moon, M. Errend, AND Randy Bruins. Should I use that model? Assessing the transferability of ecological models to new settings. Coastal and Estuarine Research Federation 2017, Providence, RI, November 05 - 09, 2017.
Impact/Purpose:
Frequently, environmental decision makers, managers, planners, and scientists need estimates of ecological stocks or processes at sites where little or no primary data or models exist, and they use existing data or models (i.e., that were measured at or developed for other locations) to obtain those estimates (e.g., they transfer those estimates or models to the new site). However, no standard methodology currently exists to assess whether those transfers are justifiable. Scientists at NHEERL Western Ecology Division in Newport, OR, have developed a framework to assess the transferability of ecological estimates or ecological models, and demonstrate the application of this methodology to estimate carbon sequestration rates for forests in the Tillamook Bay (Oregon) watershed. The abstract contributes to SHC 2.61.
Description:
Analysts and scientists frequently apply existing models that estimate ecological endpoints or simulate ecological processes to settings where the models have not been used previously, and where data to parameterize and validate the model may be sparse. Prior to transferring an existing model to a new setting, analysts should consider whether the model is likely to perform as intended. Failing to perform these steps increases the likelihood of generating unsupportable results. We present a framework to assess the transferability of ecological models that compares and identifies settings similar to those where the model was previously applied based on analyses of model-relevant ecological contexts. Model suitability for a new site is evaluated based on the performance of the model at the most-similar sites relative to predetermined performance requirements. If the model “fails” the assessment, analysts are provided with several alternative actions. We demonstrate this methodology using a carbon storage model that we transfer to a Tillamook Bay, OR, watershed as a test site. The power of our methodology lies in providing a logical framework for making consistent and transparent decisions to ensure accurate applications and legal defensibility. Our goal is to improve the likelihood of successful model transfers, prior to investment in additional data for the parameterization and validation of a model.