Effects of recent energy system changes on CO2 projections for the United States
Lenox, C. AND Dan Loughlin. Effects of recent energy system changes on CO2 projections for the United States. CLEAN TECHNOLOGIES AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY. Springer-Verlag, New York, NY, 19(9):2277-2290, (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-017-1417-y
This study helps us more fully understand the factors that influence baseline CO2 emission projections and highlights key uncertainties in different sectors that warrant additional exploration when developing forward-looking scenarios.
Recent projections of United States carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are considerably lower than those made just a decade ago. A myriad of factors have contributed to lower forecasts, including reductions in end-use energy service demands, improvements in energy efficiency, technological innovations, and policies that encourage adoption of low- and zero-carbon forms of energy. Understanding the effects of these and other factors can be advantageous as society evaluates opportunities for achieving additional CO2 reductions. Computational models provide a means to develop such insights. In this analysis, the MARKet ALlocation energy system model is applied to estimate the relative contributions of various energy system changes since 2005 on CO2 projections for the year 2025. The results indicate that the most important factors driving projection trends downward include: improved vehicle efficiencies and reductions in projected travel demand, lower miscellaneous commercial electricity loads, improvements in building lighting efficiency, and fuel switching in the electric sector.
Record Details:Record Type: DOCUMENT (JOURNAL/PEER REVIEWED JOURNAL)
Organization:U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
NATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT RESEARCH LABORATORY
AIR AND ENERGY MANAGEMENT DIVISION
ENERGY AND NATURAL SYSTEMS BRANCH