Citation:

Ou, Y., W. Shi, S. Smith, J. West, Chris Nolte, AND Dan Loughlin. Estimating Environmental Co-benefits of U.S. CO2 Reduction Pathways Using the GCAM-USA Integrated Assessment Model. 16th CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, October 23 - 25, 2017.

Impact/Purpose:

Presented at the 16th CMAS Conference

Description:

Various technological pathways can lead to reduced CO2 emissions. However, different pathways can have substantially different impacts on other environmental endpoints, such as air quality and energy-related water demand. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is a high resolution integrated assessment model developed to examine scenarios of the evolution of the U.S. and global economy, energy system, buildings, transportation, land use, and climate system. GCAM-USA is an extension of GCAM in which U.S. energy supply and demand markets are disaggregated to state-level resolution. In this study we use GCAM-USA to compare two stylized low-carbon pathways focused in the electric sector, one emphasizing nuclear energy and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) for both coal and natural gas generation (NUC/CCS) and one emphasizing renewable energy (RE). These are compared with a baseline scenario (BASE) in which all technologies are available. Air pollutant emissions, mortality costs attributable to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and energy-related water demands are evaluated for 50% and 80% GHG mitigation targets in the U.S. in 2050, compared to a 2005 baseline. These two 2050 CO2 targets are chosen to be consistent with the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 24 study, a multi-model comparison to assess alternative pathways for meeting climate targets. The EMF 24 studies focused on economic costs but did not explicitly evaluate other environmental implications, thus our study expands upon EMF 24 by exploring these tradeoffs, focusing on health impacts related to PM2.5 exposure and energy-related water demand, both at the national and state levels.

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