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Projecting state-level air pollutant emissions using an integrated assessment model: GCAM-USA
Citation:
Shi, W., Y. Ou, Dan Loughlin, Chris Nolte, S. Smith, AND C. Ledna. Projecting state-level air pollutant emissions using an integrated assessment model: GCAM-USA. 16th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, October 23 - 25, 2017.
Impact/Purpose:
Presented at the 16th Annual CMAS Conference.
Description:
The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is an integrated assessment model that links representations of the economy, energy sector, land use, and climate within an integrated modeling environment. GCAM-USA, which is an extension of GCAM, provides U.S. state-level resolution within a regionalized global modeling framework. The overall goal of our research is to explore how GCAM-USA can be used to address air, climate, and energy system goals simultaneously and cost-effectively. Here we incorporate characterizations of U.S. air pollutant emission factors and air pollutant controls as well as state-level air pollutant and energy policies into GCAM-USA. Specifically, base-year and future U.S. emission factors for NOX, SO2 and PM2.5 now represent on-the-books regulations and are harmonized with emission factors from EPA regulatory modeling efforts; state-level electric-sector NOX and SO2 emission caps based upon national air pollutant regulations are added; characterizations of NOX and SO2 control technologies for coal-fired electric utilities are implemented; and light-duty vehicle fuel efficiency requirements are applied. GCAM-USA air pollutant emission outputs are compared to a base-year inventory and future projections that were previously used in U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulatory activities. GCAM-USA projections are also compared with those of the base GCAM model in which the U.S. is represented as a single region. The comparison is conducted using a Quality Metric (QM), which also quantifies GCAM-USA performance for each pollutant at the sectoral and state levels. This information provides insights into the types of applications for which GCAM-USA is currently well suited while highlighting needs for additional refinements.
