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Exploring synergies between transit investment and dense redevelopment: A scenario analysis in a rapidly urbanizing landscape
Citation:
Cox, L., A. Bassi, J. Kolling, A. Procter, N. Flanders, N. Tanners, AND R. Araujo. Exploring synergies between transit investment and dense redevelopment: A scenario analysis in a rapidly urbanizing landscape. LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING. Elsevier Science Ltd, New York, NY, 167:429-440, (2017).
Impact/Purpose:
The paper demonstrates the value of an integrated system dynamics modeling approach to urban planning and sustainability using the case of a controversial light rail transit line proposed for Durham and Orange counties in North Carolina, which is currently competing for FTA funding. It is the first land use and transportation system dynamics model to address such a wide scope of outcomes, particularly in the U.S. The paper presents a model to explore policy solutions to enhance social and environmental outcomes of a complex urban system.
Description:
Like many urban areas around the world, Durham and Orange counties in North Carolina, USA are experiencing population growth and sprawl that is putting stress on the transportation system. Light rail and denser transit-oriented development are being considered as possible solutions. However, local agencies and stakeholders are concerned the light rail may worsen housing affordability and have questioned whether investment in both light rail and dense redevelopment are necessary to achieve community goals. We developed an integrated system dynamics model to quantitatively explore the outcomes of these land use and transportation options across multiple societal dimensions. The model incorporates feedbacks among the land, transportation, economic, equity, and energy sectors. This paper uses the results of four model scenarios, run between 2000 and 2040, to address two main questions: (1) what role does redevelopment play in capturing the socioeconomic benefits of transit infrastructure investment? And (2) how do redevelopment and light-rail transit interact to affect housing and transportation affordability? We find that transit investment and dense redevelopment combine synergistically to better achieve the goals of the light-rail line, including economic development, mobility, and compact growth. However, housing affordability does worsen in the combined scenario, as transportation-cost savings are not sufficient to offset the rise in housing costs. We emphasize that model users may input their own assumptions to explore the dynamics of alternative scenarios. We demonstrate how spatially-aggregated systems models can complement traditional land use and transportation models in the regional planning process.
