A framework to analyze emissions implications of manufacturing shifts in the industrial sector through integrating bottom-up energy models and economic input-output environmental life cycle assessment models
Kaplan, O., T. Hottle, AND R. Dodder. A framework to analyze emissions implications of manufacturing shifts in the industrial sector through integrating bottom-up energy models and economic input-output environmental life cycle assessment models. Presented at EPA 2017 Emissions Inventory Conference, Baltimore, MD, August 14 - 18, 2017.
This is a short abstract to be submitted to EPA 2017 Emissions Inventory Conference to be held in Baltimore, MD on August 14-18, 2017 to present the work on integrating energy systems models with economic input-output models.
Future year emissions depend highly on the evolution of the economy, technology and current and future regulatory drivers. A scenario framework was adopted to analyze various technology development pathways and societal change while considering existing regulations and future uncertainty in regulations and evaluate resulting emissions growth patterns. The framework integrates EPA’s energy systems model with an economic Input-Output (I/O) Life Cycle Assessment model. The EPAUS9r MARKAL database is assembled from a set of technologies to represent the U.S. energy system within MARKAL bottom-up technology rich energy modeling framework. The general state of the economy and consequent demands for goods and services from these sectors are taken exogenously in MARKAL. It is important to characterize exogenous inputs about the economy to appropriately represent the industrial sector outlook for each of the scenarios and case studies evaluated. An economic input-output (I/O) model of the US economy is constructed to link up with MARKAL. The I/O model enables user to change input requirements (e.g. energy intensity) for different sectors or the share of consumer income expended on a given good. This gives end-users a mechanism for modeling change in the two dimensions of technological progress and consumer preferences that define the future scenarios. The framework will then be extended to include environmental I/O framework to track life cycle emissions associated with a good. We will illustrate the framework through evaluation of life cycle emissions and economic implications of upstream raw material manufacturing induced by vehicle mass reduction activities in the automotive-industry to increase fuel mileage.