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Incorporating Air Pollutant Emission Factors and State-Level Controls and Energy Policies within the GCAM-USA Integrated Assessment Model
Citation:
Shi, W., Y. Ou, Dan Loughlin, Chris Nolte, S. Smith, AND C. Ledna. Incorporating Air Pollutant Emission Factors and State-Level Controls and Energy Policies within the GCAM-USA Integrated Assessment Model. 2016 CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 24 - 26, 2016.
Impact/Purpose:
This poster will describe ongoing research being done at ORD replacing the default air pollutant emission factors in GCAM-USA with emission factors and regulations appropriate for the U.S. The purpose of the meeting is scientific communication and exchange.
Description:
The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is an integrated assessment model that links representations of the economy, energy sector, land use, and climate within an integrated modeling environment. GCAM-USA, which is an extension of GCAM, provides U.S. state-level resolution within a regionalized global modeling framework. The overall goal of our research is to explore how GCAM-USA can be used to address air, climate, and energy system goals simultaneously and cost-effectively. Here we incorporate characterizations of U.S. air pollutant emission factors and air pollutant controls as well as state-level air pollutant, climate and energy policies into GCAM-USA. Emission factors for technologies of future vintages are obtained from a number of different sources, depending on the sector. State-level emission caps are implemented, approximating the Cross State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) and the Clean Power Plan (CPP). The CSAPR representation places constraints on state-level, electric sector NOx and SO2 for a subset of U.S. states. The CPP representation places caps on state-level electric sector CO2 for all U.S. states except Hawaii. CSAPR and CPP caps were derived from EPA analyses of each rule. Pollutant controls for NOx and SO2 are represented using marginal abatement curves. We show the resulting projections of emissions and electricity generation, and compare them with state-level results of other EPA models. The results indicate general agreement at both the national level and for specific states. We conclude with examples of how the extended GCAM-USA model can be used to support coordinated, long-term air, climate, and energy planning.
