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Insights into future air quality: Analysis of future emissions scenarios using the MARKAL model
Citation:
Gamas, J., Dan Loughlin, R. Dodder, AND B. Hubbell. Insights into future air quality: Analysis of future emissions scenarios using the MARKAL model. 2015 CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 05 - 07, 2015.
Impact/Purpose:
We describe a scenario-based approach for projecting future pollutant emissions. The scenarios are used to characterize regional emission trends through 2050. The scenarios are also demonstrated in the context of evaluating pathways for achieving a multi-pollutant emission reduction target. This work is important for air quality management because it presents an approach for developing alternative baselines that can be used in policy analysis.
Description:
This presentation will provide an update on the development and evaluation of four Air Quality Futures (AQF) scenarios. These scenarios represent widely different assumptions regarding the evolution of the U.S. energy system over the next 40 years. The primary differences between the scenarios relate to the availability of advanced technologies that may have lower environmental impacts and society'?s willingness to adopt less polluting consumption patterns when faced with future environmental challenges. We briefly describe how the four qualitative scenarios were incorporated into the MARKet Allocation (MARKAL) by adjusting hurdle rates and other values so that the model was free to choose technologies and fuels consistent with the implications of the scenarios, in response to the application of additional policies or other assumptions. In this application, NOx, SO2 and PM reduction targets are applied in each scenario. The resulting technology and fuel choices for each are examined, as are ancillary benefits, such as reductions in CO2 emissions.
