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Guidance for the application of a population modeling framework in coordination with field based monitoring studies for multiple species and sites
Citation:
Miller, D., Joe Tietge, M. McMaster, K. Munkittrick, X. Xia, X. Zhang, D. Griesmer, AND G. Ankley. Guidance for the application of a population modeling framework in coordination with field based monitoring studies for multiple species and sites. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/X-15/331.
Impact/Purpose:
A modeling framework was developed that can be applied in conjunction with field based monitoring efforts (e.g., through effects-based monitoring programs) to link chemically-induced alterations in molecular and biochemical endpoints to adverse outcomes in whole organisms and populations. The approach employs a simple density dependent logistic matrix model linked to adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) for reproductive effects and survival in fish. Application of this framework requires a life table for the organism of interest, a measure of carrying capacity for the population of interest, and estimation of the effect of stressors on vital rates of organisms within the study population. This framework is based upon well established and robust principles, and has been demonstrated in a field study application using long-term monitoring data for white sucker (Catostomus commersoni) exposed to pulp mill effluent collected from a study site at Jackfish Bay, Lake Superior. Individual responses of monitored fish exposed to chemical stressors were used to show the framework’s capability to project alterations in population status, both in terms of ongoing impact and subsequent recovery after stressor mitigation associated with remediation. The modeling approach taken at the Jackfish Bay site can be applied to characterize population status of other species at a variety of impacted sites, and can account for effects of multiple stressors (both chemical and non-chemical) and dynamics within complex landscapes (i.e., meta-populations, including emigration and immigration processes). Herein, we identify three potential research opportunities for future site specific application of this modeling framework, including a description of previous effects based monitoring work that has been completed at each geographic location that allows for our modeling framework to be applied. These three opportunities include (1) white sucker, brown bullhead (Ameiurus nebulosus), smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), and largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) studies at a group of sites associated with Great Lakes Basin Areas of Concern (2) rainbow darter (Etheostoma caeruleum) and greenside darter (Etheostoma blennioides) in the Grand River watershed, Ontario, Canada, and (3) slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus) in rivers of New Brunswick, Canada and Northern Canadian Lakes.
Description:
A modeling framework was developed that can be applied in conjunction with field based monitoring efforts (e.g., through effects-based monitoring programs) to link chemically-induced alterations in molecular and biochemical endpoints to adverse outcomes in whole organisms and populations. The approach employs a simple density dependent logistic matrix model linked to adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) for reproductive effects and survival in fish. Application of this framework requires a life table for the organism of interest, a measure of carrying capacity for the population of interest, and estimation of the effect of stressors on vital rates of organisms within the study population. This framework is based upon well established and robust principles, and has been demonstrated in a field study application using long-term monitoring data for white sucker (Catostomus commersoni) exposed to pulp mill effluent collected from a study site at Jackfish Bay, Lake Superior. Individual responses of monitored fish exposed to chemical stressors were used to show the framework’s capability to project alterations in population status, both in terms of ongoing impact and subsequent recovery after stressor mitigation associated with remediation. The modeling approach taken at the Jackfish Bay site can be applied to characterize population status of other species at a variety of impacted sites, and can account for effects of multiple stressors (both chemical and non-chemical) and dynamics within complex landscapes (i.e., meta-populations, including emigration and immigration processes). Herein we describe in detail how the mathematical modeling approach is formulated to be applied across species and across sites. Further, we identify three potential research opportunities for future site specific application of this modeling framework, including a description of previous effects based monitoring work that has been completed at each geographic location that allows for our modeling framework to be applied. These three opportunities include (1) white sucker, brown bullhead (Ameiurus nebulosus), smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), and largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) studies at a group of sites associated with Great Lakes Basin Areas of Concern (2) rainbow darter (Etheostoma caeruleum) and greenside darter (Etheostoma blennioides) in the Grand River watershed, Ontario, Canada, and (3) slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus) in rivers of New Brunswick, Canada and Northern Canadian Lakes.