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Insights into future air quality: a multipollutant analysis of future scenarios using the MARKAL model
Citation:
Gamas, J., Dan Loughlin, AND R. Dodder. Insights into future air quality: a multipollutant analysis of future scenarios using the MARKAL model. Presented at 14th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 05 - 07, 2015.
Impact/Purpose:
In this presentation we discuss and demonstrate the utility of a scenario-based approach for addressing uncertainties in air quality management.
Description:
In this presentation, we will provide an update on the development and evaluation of the Air Quality Futures (AQF) scenarios. These scenarios represent widely different assumptions regarding the evolution of the U.S. energy system over the next 40 years. The four AQF scenarios differ primarily along two main drivers: availability of advanced technologies and society’s preferences and adaptability in changing its behaviors to reflect those preferences when faced with future environmental challenges. We briefly describe how the four qualitative scenarios were incorporated into MARKAL providing enough flexibility to allow the model to find optimal least cost solutions. Then we use the four scenarios to rehearse alternative futures where NOX reductions are being sought. We discuss the similarities and differences in technologies chosen under each scenario to meet these NOx reductions. Then we also assess the impact of the NOx reductions and technology choices on other criteria and greenhouse gas emissions under each scenario.