Science Inventory

An Integrated Modeling Framework Forcasting Ecosystem Services--Application to the Albemarle Pamlico Basins, NC and VA (USA) and Beyond


Johnston, JohnM, M. Barber, J. Babendreier, G. Laniak, AND D. Mcgarvey. An Integrated Modeling Framework Forcasting Ecosystem Services--Application to the Albemarle Pamlico Basins, NC and VA (USA) and Beyond. Presented at 4th International Ecosummit, Columbus, OH, September 30 - October 05, 2012.


Presentation for 4th International Ecosummit workshop. The ecosystem services concept enables development of policies that integrate social, economic, and ecological perspectives. Integrated environmental modelling is essential to support this concept in a way that systematizes, integrates and shares knowledge to analyze trade-offs and assess policy options utilizing fitting stakeholder engagement. In this session we seek insightful examples of integrative modelling studies that address ecosystem service provisioning. Studies may focus on abiotic (eg water provisioning, regulation, soil protection) and/or biotic processes (eg crop production, pollination, biocontrol). Examples that examine modelling approaches of different types and/or complexity are especially welcome. Secondly, we seek investigations that specifically analyze trade-offs that may be spatial, temporal, socioeconomic and/or environmental, and that include off-site effects. Thirdly, we seek lessons as to how the work benefitted from a stakeholder engagement process and what methods were utilized to gain trust, share knowledge and perspectives and discuss trade-offs. We expect to get excellent examples of these issues in order to stimulate consistency and creativity in approaching future ecosystem services studies. Young scientists are especially encouraged to submit to this session.


We demonstrate an Integrated Modeling Framework that predicts the state of freshwater ecosystem services within the Albemarle-Pamlico Basins. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are link within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for the current study: the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicts surface water runoff; the Watershed Mercury Model (WMM) models mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) predicts water quality within the stream channel; Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) models physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) predicts fish growth and production, as well as bioaccumulation of toxic substances (e.g., mercury). Using this Framework, we present a baseline assessment of three freshwater ecosystem services – water quantity, water quality, and fisheries resources – in headwater streams throughout the Albemarle-Pamlico. We selected a stratified random sample of headwater streams representative of the population of headwater streams.

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Record Details:

Product Published Date: 10/05/2012
Record Last Revised: 12/18/2013
OMB Category: Other
Record ID: 247655