Citation:

Davis, M. J., R. Janke, AND M. Magnuson. A Framework for Estimating the Adverse Health Effects of Contamination Events in Water Distribution Systems and its Application. RISK ANALYSIS. Blackwell Publishing, Malden, MA, 34(3):498-513, (2014).

Impact/Purpose:

Intentional or accidental releases of contaminants into a water distribution system (WDS) have the potential to cause significant adverse health effects among individuals consuming water from the system. A flexible analysis framework is presented here for estimating the magnitude of such potential effects and applied using network models for 12 actual WDSs of varying sizes. The results from these systems are then used to illustrate how statistical models can be developed for predicting the magnitude of adverse effects of contamination events for WDSs for which little system-specific information is available. The combination of a detailed, network-specific approach and a statistical approach allows consequence assessments to be performed for systems for which varying amounts of information are available and addresses important needs of individual utilities as well as regional or national assessments. The approach used in the analysis framework allows contaminant injections at any or all network nodes and uses models that (1) account for contaminant transport in the systems, including contaminant decay, and (2) provide estimates of ingested contaminant doses for the exposed population. The approach can be easily modified as better models become available. The methods presented here provide the ability to quantify potential adverse effects of contamination events for a wide variety of possible contaminants and WDSs, including systems without a network model.

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Journal Article

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