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Coral Mortality and Bleaching Output (Combo) Model
Impact/Purpose:
To estimate the combined effects of climate change and ocean acidification on coral reefs.
Description:
COMBO estimates the effects of climate change and ocean acidification on coral reefs at local-to-regional scales. The COMBO model calculates the impacts to coral reefs (change in coral cover) from changes in average SST and CO2 concentrations, and from high temperature mortality (bleaching) events. The model uses a probabilistic assessment of the frequency of high temperature events under a future climate to address scientific uncertainties about potential adverse effects. COMBO offers data libraries and default factors for three selected regions (Hawai’i, Great Barrier Reef, and Caribbean), but it is structured with user-selectable parameter values and data input options, making possible modifications to reflect local conditions or to incorporate local expertise.
Model website: http://hercules.kgs.ku.edu/coralclimate/Models/models.html.
Peer-reviewed publications: 1) R.W. Buddemeier, P.L. Jokiel, K.M. Zimmerman, D.R. Lane, J. M. Carey, G.C. Bohling, J.A. Martinich, 2008. A modeling tool to evaluate regional coral reef responses to changes in climate and ocean chemistry. Limnology and Oceanography Methods, 6:395-411; 2) R.W. Buddemeier, Lane, D.R., Martinich, J.A. (2010) Modeling Regional Coral Reef Responses to Global Warming and Changes in Ocean Chemistry: Caribbean Case Study, Climatic Change, 109:375–397. 3) Lane DR, Ready RC, Buddemeier RW, Martinich JA, Shouse KC, et al. (2013) Quantifying and Valuing Potential Climate Change Impacts on Coral Reefs in the United States: Comparison of Two Scenarios. PLoS ONE 8(12): e82579. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0082579
URLs/Downloads:
Journal paper: Modeling Regional Coral Reef Responses
Journal Paper: Quantifying and Valuing Potential Climate Change
Journal paper: A modeling tool to evaluate regional coral impact