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SLAMM Modeling of Yaquina Estuary, Central Oregon Coast
Citation:
Loiselle, R., D. REUSSER, H. LEE, II, C. A. BROWN, P. J. CLINTON, AND C. Janousek. SLAMM Modeling of Yaquina Estuary, Central Oregon Coast. Presented at Oregon Climate Change Research Institute PNW Climate Conference 2010, Portland, OK, June 15 - 16, 2010.
Impact/Purpose:
Sea level rise (SLR) is predicted to impact the infrastructure of coastal communities and ecological structure of estuarine habitats.
Description:
Sea level rise (SLR) is predicted to impact the infrastructure of coastal communities and ecological structure of estuarine habitats. To develop a better understanding of these potential impacts in the Pacific Northwest, the U. S. Geological Survey is collaborating with EPA, other federal and state agencies, Oregon universities, and NGO’s. One thrust of this multi-agency research is to model the effects of SLR on wetland habitats using the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM). SLAMM offers a generalized tool for predicting SLR-induced change in a variety of estuarine wetland habitats. Among its advantages, SLAMM does not require bathymetry data, it is open source, and it provides great flexibility in choices for model complexity and climate change scenarios. Our objectives are to model SLR scenarios, evaluate model assumptions and parameter inputs applicable to five Pacific Northwest estuaries, and add the capability to model potential changes in submerged aquatic vegetation. In the Yaquina watershed, tidal flats are the current dominant wetland type at 1.1 % of the total landscape area, followed by irregularly flooded marsh (0.18%) and regularly flooded marsh (0.16%). Preliminary analysis of a 1 meter SLR scenario by the year 2100, with no protection to developed areas, indicates 74% reduction of tidal flat area, 94% reduction of irregularly flooded marsh, and an 85% increase in regularly flooded marsh, respectively from its initial total area. Modeling is being conducted concurrently with field research to derive informative estimates of parameters such as marsh accretion rates and vegetation zonation for the Pacific Northwest.