Impact/Purpose:

Predicting the spread and establishment of invasive species in river ecosystems under climate change requires developing models that mechanistically link species population success to climate-sensitive environmental drivers. The goal of this project is to build a general and mechanistic framework with which to predict the future potential distribution of two invasive species expected to expand their ranges under a warming climate in streams and rivers of the western US. We hypothesize that local site invasibility will be regulated by climate-sensitive thresholds of hydrogeomorphic disturbance, which will vary throughout river networks in response to reach-scale channel geomorphology, future precipitation regimes, and operation of dams, which modify natural flow regimes.

Description:

This synthetic, multi-scale approach will generate a sequence of spatially explicit maps that will provide science guidance to support strategic decision-making regarding the spatially-distributed risk of, and possible adaptation to, the spread of invasive species at local to regional scales in the western US. The model will be general enough that it can be applied to other riverine species and resources, including non-invasive species.

URLs/Downloads:

2010 Progress Report

2009 Progress Report

2011 Progress Report

2012 Progress Report

Record Details:

Record Type:PROJECT( ABSTRACT )

Start Date:07/01/2008

Completion Date:06/30/2012

Record ID: 200589

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Related Organizations:

Role :OWNER

Organization Name :COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY

Citation :Ft Collins

State :CO

Zip Code :80523



Role :OWNER

Organization Name :U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY

Citation :Washington

State :DC



Role :OWNER

Organization Name :U.S. FOREST SERVICE

Citation :Grand Rapids

State :MN

Zip Code :55744



Role :OWNER

Organization Name :U.S. BUREAU OF RECLAMATION

Mailing Address :1849 C Street NW

Citation :Washington

State :DC

Zip Code :20240



Role :OWNER

Organization Name :STOCKHOLM ENVIRONMENTAL INSTITUTE

Mailing Address :133 D Street, Suite F

Citation :Davis

State :CA

Zip Code :95616



Role :OWNER

Organization Name :OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY

Citation :Corvallis

State :OR

Zip Code :97331

Project Information:

Approach :

In a geographic region predicted to support saltcedar in the near future, we will downscale projected scenarios of temperature and precipitation as inputs to the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model framework, allow us to generate streamflow regimes at ca. 50 km2 subbasins based on precipitation and water management operations (including dams). We will use an artificial neural network (ANN) model to spatially distribute the WEAP hydrologic predictions throughout river networks at the reach scale (100s of meters). These reach-scale flow regime predictions, in conjunction with GIS-derived measures of channel and valley bottom geomorphology, will allow us to apply our biological model to assess the most likely locations in river networks for successful saltcedar and mudsnail invasion, given the flow-mediated disturbance regimes of any of several future climate scenarios. Further, using the coupled WEAP-ANN model, we will explore how a range of water management operations might influence the likelihood of invasive establishment in these climate contexts. Finally, we will use innovative stochastic population models to evaluate the probability of long-term success of the invasive species across a range of habitat vulnerability.

Cost :$599,748.00

Research Component :Aquatic Ecosystems

Approach :

In a geographic region predicted to support saltcedar in the near future, we will downscale projected scenarios of temperature and precipitation as inputs to the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model framework, allow us to generate streamflow regimes at ca. 50 km2 subbasins based on precipitation and water management operations (including dams). We will use an artificial neural network (ANN) model to spatially distribute the WEAP hydrologic predictions throughout river networks at the reach scale (100s of meters). These reach-scale flow regime predictions, in conjunction with GIS-derived measures of channel and valley bottom geomorphology, will allow us to apply our biological model to assess the most likely locations in river networks for successful saltcedar and mudsnail invasion, given the flow-mediated disturbance regimes of any of several future climate scenarios. Further, using the coupled WEAP-ANN model, we will explore how a range of water management operations might influence the likelihood of invasive establishment in these climate contexts. Finally, we will use innovative stochastic population models to evaluate the probability of long-term success of the invasive species across a range of habitat vulnerability.

Cost :$599,748.00

Research Component :Global Climate Change

Project IDs:

ID Code :R833833

Project type :EPA Grant