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EVALUATING HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE TO FORECASTED LAND-USE CHANGE: SCENARIO TESTING WITH THE AUTOMATED GEOSPATIAL WATERSHED ASSESSMENT (AGWA) TOOL
Citation:
KEPNER, W. G., D. J. Semmens, M. Hernandez, AND D. C. Goodrich. EVALUATING HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE TO FORECASTED LAND-USE CHANGE: SCENARIO TESTING WITH THE AUTOMATED GEOSPATIAL WATERSHED ASSESSMENT (AGWA) TOOL. In Proceedings, 3rd Interagency Conference on Research in the Watersheds, Estes Park, CO, September 08 - 11, 2008. USGS, Corvallis, OR, 79-84, (2009).
Impact/Purpose:
The EPA ecological research program is currently engaged in a major new national project centered on “ecosystem services,” a core international theme which was brought to the global forefront by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA 2005). The central premise of the MA is that human condition is intrinsically linked to the environment and that human health and well-being (including economic prosperity) depends on important supportive functions as well as regulating, provisioning, and cultural services provided by our surrounding ecosystems. EPA is in the process of redirecting its ecological research program to respond to the challenges identified by the MA and is providing a new emphasis on integration, application, and transformative research and education. EPA scientists in Las Vegas, Nevada
Description:
Envisioning and evaluating future scenarios has emerged as a critical component of both science and social decision-making. The ability to assess, report, map, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions to maintain the sustainable nature of our ecosystem services now and into the future. During the past two decades, important advances in the integration of remote imagery, computer processing, and spatial-analysis technologies have been used to develop landscape information that can be integrated with hydrologic models to determine long-term change and make predictive inferences about the future. Two diverse case studies in northwest Oregon (Willamette River basin) and Southeastern Arizona (San Pedro River) were examined in regard to future land-use scenarios relative to their impact on surface-water conditions (e.g., sediment yield and surface runoff) using hydrologic models associated with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The base reference grid for land cover was modified in both study locations to reflect stakeholder preferences twenty to sixty years into the future and the consequences of landscape change were evaluated relative to the selected future scenarios. The two studies provide examples of integrating hydrologic modeling with a scenario analysis framework to evaluate plausible future forecasts and understand the potential impact of landscape change on ecosystem services.
URLs/Downloads:
FINAL Proceedings will be posted in early 2009
KEPNER 08-161 FINAL PROCEEDINGS.PDF (PDF, NA pp, 1584 KB, about PDF)
Submission of proceedings