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A PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR ANTI-DEGRADATION MONITORING OF THE DELAWARE RIVER
Citation:
BLOCKSOM, K. A., J. E. FLOTEMERSCH, AND R. LIMBECK. A PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR ANTI-DEGRADATION MONITORING OF THE DELAWARE RIVER. Presented at National Water Quality Monitoring Conference, Atlantic City, NJ, May 18 - 22, 2008.
Impact/Purpose:
The goal of this research is to develop methods and indicators that are useful for evaluating the condition of aquatic communities, for assessing the restoration of aquatic communities in response to mitigation and best management practices, and for determining the exposure of aquatic communities to different classes of stressors (i.e., pesticides, sedimentation, habitat alteration).
Description:
The non-tidal portion of the Delaware River consists of many large sections designated as Wild and Scenic Rivers and passes through two national parks. Although there is increasing pressure on the watershed, large sections of the mainstem of the river can be considered to be in minimally disturbed condition. Thus, the primary goal of this research is to develop a monitoring tool that can be used by the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC) to monitor for changes in the macroinvertebrate assemblage that may be a result of human development in the basin. Using the conditions in the river in 2006 as a baseline, we developed a predictive model that can be used to assess the similarity of any given site to the minimally disturbed condition as predicted by the model. We first verified the sections of river that are considered representative of minimal disturbance by the DRBC and national park personnel. We included macroinvertebrate data from riffles, glide/runs and pools in a cluster analysis. Then we performed discriminant analysis using information on substrate, velocity, depth, and sampling date to develop a RIVPACS-type predictive model for the Delaware River. This type of approach will provide the DRBC and national parks with a tool that can be of use for early detection of changes to the river and may be useful in diagnosing causes of such changes.