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REGIONAL ASSESSMENT OF LANDSCAPE AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE EFFECTS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION, THE MOROCCO CASE STUDY (1981 - 2003)
Citation:
NASH, M. S., D. J. CHALOUD, S. SARRI, AND W. G. KEPNER. REGIONAL ASSESSMENT OF LANDSCAPE AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE EFFECTS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION, THE MOROCCO CASE STUDY (1981 - 2003). Presented at NATO Advanced Research Workshop, Newport, RI, June 04 - 08, 2007.
Impact/Purpose:
The primary objectives of this research are to:
- Provide information on the variability in water supply that can be expected under varying climatic conditions. Early efforts will be focused on assembling regional databases for at least two counties (Mecklenberg County and York County) within SEQL region that can be used for water supply generation and model development.
- Develop tools that will help improve our ability to evaluate, study, and model linkages between different types of environmental systems: hydrologic, geomorphic, ecological, and climatic.
- Explore the use of annual and seasonal measurements of large lake surface temperatures as a new ecological indicator of the overall thermal content of those lakes, and construct an estimator of seasonal large lake heat budgets.
Description:
The effect of changes in landscape factors on socioeconomics was analyzed
locally and regionally. The method presented here allows mapping changes in vegetation cover
trends over large areas quickly and inexpensively, thus providing policy-makers with a technical
capacity to locate and assess areas of environmental instability and improve their ability to
positively respond or adapt to environmental change. In this specific example, changes in
vegetation cover were assessed over a 23-year period (1981-2003) using 8 km Normalized
Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data derived from Advanced Very High Resolution
Radiometer (AVHRR) from decadal composites for Morocco. A regression model of NDVI,
over time, was developed to identify long-term trends in vegetation cover for each pixel in the
study area as a case study for the lower Mediterranean Region (North Africa). Results were
mapped using ArcView for visualization and assessments. Patches of decreasing or increasing
vegetation cover were identified and analyzed; analysis was performed using ancillary data and
published work. A decreasing trend in vegetation cover is an indicator of some type of stress,
either natural (drought, fire) or anthropogenic (excessive grazing, urban growth) that relates to the
life-support function of the environment upon which humans depend. The results can be used by
authorities in developing management plans to preserve or conserve natural resources and
maintain or improve the socioeconomic status of the resident population. Although Morocco was
used solely as the case study for this presentation, the described approach has broad application
throughout the world and thus offers a possible solution for combating changing conditions that
affect human security.