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ESTIMATING THE LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE OF SELECTED PESTICIDES AND NUTRIENTS EXCEEDING SPECIFIC CONCENTRATIONS IN COASTAL PLAIN STREAMS BASED ON LANDSCAPE CHARACTERISTICS
Citation:
ATOR, S., J. DENVER, A. C. NEALE, AND A. M. PITCHFORD. ESTIMATING THE LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE OF SELECTED PESTICIDES AND NUTRIENTS EXCEEDING SPECIFIC CONCENTRATIONS IN COASTAL PLAIN STREAMS BASED ON LANDSCAPE CHARACTERISTICS. Presented at American Chemical Society 233rd National Meeting, Chicago, IL, March 25 - 29, 2007.
Impact/Purpose:
The overarching objective is to develop and test landscape indicator statistical models for condition of streams and aquatic biota in relation to pesticides, nutrients, sediments and toxic substances, nationwide. The indicator models will serve as tools for managers who want consistent methods to compare potential impacts on streams within a biophysical region for differing landscape patterns. To accomplish this objective, several sub objectives will be important:
Develop landscape indicator statistical models of stream vulnerability for selected regions of the U.S., beginning with the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Streams; studies in the Midwest, California, and the Southeast will follow.
Demonstrate the application of the landscape indicator models for the ranking of watersheds, the identification of "hot spots," and the evaluation of management options using projected future scenarios of land use for the study areas selected above.
Develop statistical distributions for physical characteristics of small water bodies for use in OPP modeling.
Leverage resources for this research by incorporating existing data into the model development process, and by sharing field study costs with other projects in the same geographic areas.
This task represents a topic area within the Landscape Sciences research program which is described in A National Assessment of Landscape Change and Impacts to Aquatic Resources. A 10-Year Research Strategy for the Landscape Sciences Program, EPA/600/R-00/001. It also supports the Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) Program.
Besides being responsive to the Office of Pesticide Programs, this research directly supports long-term goals established in ORD's multi-year research plans related to GPRA Goal 2 (Water Quality) and GPRA Goal 8.1.1 (Sound Science/Ecological Research). Relative to the GPRA Goal 2 multi-year plan, this research will "provide tools to assess and diagnose impairment in aquatic systems and the sources of associated stressors" and "provide the tools to restore and protect aquatic ecosystems and to forecast the ecological, economic, and human health outcomes of alternative solutions" (Long Term Research Goals 2 and 3). Relative to the Goal 8 multi-year plan, this research will develop and demonstrate methods to provide states, tribes, and federal, state and local managers with abilities to: (1) assess the condition of waterbodies in a scientifically-defensible and representative way, while allowing for aggregation and assessment of trends at multiple scales; (2) diagnose cause and forecast future condition in a scientifically defensible fashion to more effectively protect and restore valued ecosystems; and (3) assess current and future ecological conditions, probable causes of impairments, and management alternatives.
Description:
The occurrence of selected pesticides and nutrient compounds in nontidal headwater streams of the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain (North Carolina through New Jersey) during winter and spring base flow is related to land use, soils, and other geographic variables that reflect sources and environmental fate and transport of these compounds. Water samples were collected between mid-February and early June 2000 from a randomly designed survey of 174 streams representing the range of land-use and hydrogeologic settings in the Coastal Plain. Logistic regression was used to relate measured stream chemistry to features of contributing watersheds, including agricultural or urban land use, soils, and other geographic characteristics. Regression models estimate the likelihood of occurrence of selected pesticide and nutrient compounds above specific concentrations in more than 9,000 headwater streams throughout the Coastal Plain, and provide insight into natural and human factors affecting the distribution of such compounds in streams.