MARKAL SCENARIO ANALYSES OF TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS FOR THE ELECTRIC SECTOR: THE IMPACT ON AIR QUALITY
Citation:
JOHNSON, T. L., C. L. SHAY, J. F. DECAROLIS, D. H. LOUGHLIN, C. L. GAGE, AND S. VIJAY. MARKAL SCENARIO ANALYSES OF TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS FOR THE ELECTRIC SECTOR: THE IMPACT ON AIR QUALITY. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-06/114, 2006.
Impact/Purpose:
Information
Description:
This report provides a general overview of EPA’s national MARKAL database and energy systems model and compares various scenarios to a business as usual baseline scenario. Under baseline assumptions, total electricity use increases 1.3% annually until 2030. Annual growth in electricity demand varies between 1% in the residential sector to 2.1% in the commercial and 1.5% in the industrial sectors of the U.S. economy. More than 76% of the new capacity is natural gas technologies with 61% being natural gas combined cycle and 15% being natural gas combustion turbines. New conventional coal-fired power plants are not added until 2020, though a small amount of integrated gasification combined cycle generation comes on line in 2015. Renewables add 34 GW of capacity with 61% coming from wind power generation. Nuclear power capacity increases slightly. Overall, coal electric generation grows 0.5% annually, natural gas grows 3.8% and renewables grow 2.7%
URLs/Downloads:
600R06114.PDF (PDF, NA pp, 891 KB, about PDF)MARKAL SCENARIO ANALYSES OF TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS FOR THE ELECTRIC SECTOR: THE IMPACT ON AIR QUALITY