You are here:
AN EXAMINATION OF THE CMAQ SIMULATIONS OF THE WET DEPOSITION OF AMMONIUM FROM A BAYESIAN PERSPECTIVE
Citation:
DAVIS, J. M. AND J. SWALL. AN EXAMINATION OF THE CMAQ SIMULATIONS OF THE WET DEPOSITION OF AMMONIUM FROM A BAYESIAN PERSPECTIVE. ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. Elsevier Science Ltd, New York, NY, 40(24):4562-4573, (2006).
Impact/Purpose:
The objective of this task is to thoroughly characterize the performance of the emissions, meteorological and chemical/transport modeling components of the Models-3 system, with an emphasis on the chemical/transport model, CMAQ. Emissions-based models are composed of highly complex scientific hypotheses concerning natural processes that can be evaluated through comparison with observations, but not truly validated. Static and Dynamic Operational, Diagnostic, and ultimately Probablistic evaluation methods are needed to both establish credibility and build confidence within the client and scientific community in the simulations results for policy and scientific applications. The characterization of the performance of Models-3/CMAQ is also a tool for the model developers to identify aspects of the modeling system that require further improvement.
Description:
The objective of this study is to ascertain the effects of precipitation simulations and emissions on CMAQ simulations of deposition. In both seasons, CMAQ tends to underpredict the deposition amounts. Based on the co-located measurements of ammonium wet deposition and precipitation at the NADP sites and on estimated precipitation amounts for each grid cell, Bayesian statistical methods are used to estimate ammonium wet deposition over all grid cells in the study region.