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SEASONAL NH 3 EMISSIONS FOR THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES: INVERSE MODEL ESTIMATION AND EVALUATION
Citation:
GILLILAND, A., W. APPEL, R. L. DENNIS, AND R. W. PINDER. SEASONAL NH 3 EMISSIONS FOR THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES: INVERSE MODEL ESTIMATION AND EVALUATION. ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. Elsevier Science Ltd, New York, NY, 40(26):4986-4998, (2006).
Impact/Purpose:
The objective of this task is to thoroughly characterize the performance of the emissions, meteorological and chemical/transport modeling components of the Models-3 system, with an emphasis on the chemical/transport model, CMAQ. Emissions-based models are composed of highly complex scientific hypotheses concerning natural processes that can be evaluated through comparison with observations, but not truly validated. Static and Dynamic Operational, Diagnostic, and ultimately Probablistic evaluation methods are needed to both establish credibility and build confidence within the client and scientific community in the simulations results for policy and scientific applications. The characterization of the performance of Models-3/CMAQ is also a tool for the model developers to identify aspects of the modeling system that require further improvement.
Description:
An inverse modeling study has been conducted here to evaluate a prior estimate of seasonal ammonia (NH3) emissions. The prior estimates were based on a previous inverse modeling study and two other bottom-up inventory studies. The results suggest that the prior estimates were within a reasonable level of uncertainty for both spring and fall seasons, but prior estimates needed to be lower in the winter and higher in the summer than originally estimated. For future studies of NH3 emissions, it is important to have total ammonia (gas phase NH3+ aerosol ammonium) observations to constrain the results.