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A MODEL OF MIGRATION IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN ENERGY STUDY REGION
Citation:
Gordon, S. AND C. Badger. A MODEL OF MIGRATION IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN ENERGY STUDY REGION. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., EPA/600/7-81/065.
Description:
The report was prepared as part of the Ohio River Basin Energy Study (ORBES), a multidisciplinary policy research program. It examines the impact of regional energy development scenarios and policies on the internal movements of population and industry within the project study region, which covers all of Kentucky, most of West Virginia, and substantial portions of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. For any particular economic and population forecast, some level of regional growth is implied. The location of this growth within the region may be influenced by, or may induce, the location and movement of population within the region. No national-level projections were generated that would allow the generation and use of a model to predict such migration. Thus, this report covers the attempt to develop such a regional model. First, other attempts to derive empirical models of migration that relate to the theory behind the model developed here are reviewed. Data sources are described in terms of geography, time, and variable type. The models derived are then described, and the pros and cons of using each for simulating ORBES regional impacts are discussed. Finally, one of these models is used to simulate the migration impacts of the ORBES scenarios under alternative sets of assumptions.