Citation:

Impact/Purpose:

To model the U.S. electric power sector for policy analysis.

Description:

The Integrated Planning Model (IPM) is a multi-regional, dynamic, deterministic linear programming (LP) model of the electric power sector in the continental lower 48 states and the District of Columbia. It provides forecasts up to year 2050 of least-cost capacity expansion, electricity dispatch, and emission control strategies for meeting energy demand and environmental, transmission, dispatch, and reliability constraints. IPM can be used to evaluate the cost and emissions impacts of proposed policies to limit emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), carbon dioxide (CO2), and mercury (Hg) from the electric power sector.

IPM provides a detail-rich representation of the U.S. electric power system. Over 15,000 existing and planned/committed generating units in the U.S. electric system are mapped to over 40,000 model plants, each designed to capture the specific cost, performance, and emission characteristics of the units it represents. The model also provides a very detailed representation of coal supply choices available to the power sector. It distinguishes coal by rank (bituminous, subbituminous, and lignite), sulfur and mercury content, and differentiates approximately 40 distinct supply regions (each with its own set of supply curves) and a comparable number of demand regions. The model's representation of emission control options is also extensive.

IPM platform is routinely updated every year based on AEO demand projections, in addition to major updates every few years based on the emerging needs and changes in fuel resource availability.

Record Details:

Record Type:DOCUMENT

Product Published Date:10/30/2003

Record Last Revised:06/06/2014

OMB Category:Other

Record ID: 74919

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Model Detail:

Model Formulation :<

Model Evaluation :Quality assurance and verification of code is routinely performed by ICF Resources, Inc. in accordance with an approved Quality Assurance Project Plan and contractual provisions with EPA. Model inputs and results are corroborated through extensive review and comment by EPA stakeholders. Sensitivity analyses are routinely performed by EPA and key model runs are posted on the web site noted above in (B)3d. Uncertainty analysis exercises are under development. IPM is regularly used in comparative modeling exercises sponsored by Stanford University’s Energy Modeling Forum and other organizations. Regularly scheduled peer review is performed on key elements and assumptions in EPA’s application of IPM.

Model URL :http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progsregs/epa-ipm/

Model Guidance Documents :ICF Resources, Inc. maintains an IPM user manual for the purpose of training internal staff and licensees of the model. Since it contains proprietary business information pertaining to the source code, it is not available for public dissemination.

Model Decision Documents :Links at http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progsregs/epa-ipm// provide:

• Documentation of assumptions in EPA applications
• National Electric Energy Data System, a database of the electric generation units represented in IPM applications
• Input and output files for the runs performed for or policy analysis.
  
  Model Download Information :Documentation of model assumptions, data inputs, model outputs and analyses can be viewed and downloaded from: http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progsregs/epa-ipm/
  
  modelcontactinfo :Serpil Kayin
  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
  Office of Air and Radiation
  Clean Air Markets Division
  (202) 343-9390
  kayin.serpil@epa.gov

  Contact information for ICF International, the IPM developer, can be obtained from the Agency Contact.
  
  Model Inputs :IPM's detail-rich bottom-up representation requires an extensive set of input parameters to characterize the US electric system, economic outlook, fuel supply and air regulatory framework. Key input parameters include:

  Electric System

  Existing Utility Generating ResourcesPlant Capacities
  Heat Rates
  Plant Availability
  Minimum Generation Requirements (Turn Down Constraint)
  Fuels Used
  Fixed and Variable Operations and Maintenance Costs
  Emissions Limits or Emission Rates for NO_x, SO₂, CO₂, Mercury
  Existing Pollution Control Equipment and Retrofit Options
  Output Profile for Non-Dispatchable Resources

  New Generating Resources
  Cost and Performance Characteristics
  Emission Rates
  Limitations on Availability

  Other System Requirements
  Inter-regional Transmission Capabilities
  Reserve Margin Requirements for Reliability
  System Specific Generation Requirements
  Regional Specification

  Economic Outlook
  Regional Electricity Demand
  Regional Peak Demand
  Load Curves
  Capital Charge Rate
  Discount Rate

  Fuel Supply
  Fuel Supply Curves for Coal, Natural Gas, and Biomass
  Fuel Price
  Fuel Quality
  Transportation Costs for Coal and Natural Gas

  Air Regulatory Outlook
  Air Regulations for NO_x, SO₂, CO₂, and Mercury
  Other Air Regulations
  
  Model Outputs :IPM outputs range from extremely detailed reports, which describe the results for each model plant and run year in the 20-30 year modeling horizon, to summary reports, which present results for regional and national aggregates. Standard IPM reports cover the following topics:

  Generation
  Capacity mix (by plant type and presence or absence of emission controls)
  Capacity additions and retirements
  Capacity prices
  Wholesale electricity prices
  Power production costs (capital VOM, FOM and fuel costs)
  Fuel consumption
  Fuel supply and demand
  Fuel prices for coal, natural gas, and biomass
  Emissions (NO_x, SO₂, CO₂, and Hg)
  Allowance prices

  Further details can be found at: http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progsregs/epa-ipm/input-output.html
  and http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progsregs/epa-ipm/parsed-files.html
  
  otheruserdocs :Links at http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progsregs/epa-ipm// provide:

  • Documentation of assumptions in EPA applications
  • National Electric Energy Data System, a database of the electric generation units represented in IPM applications
  • Input and output files for model runs performed for policy analysis.
  
  
  

  Model Computer Requirements:

  Model Operating Systems Needs :Windows 2003 Server or Linux Red Hat, depending on the LP solver used. (See item "Other Software Requirements")
  
  Model Hardware Needs :The model's core LP code is run by ICF Consulting, Inc. on a Dell Precision 530 Xeon dual processor 2.4 GHz workstation
  
  Model Programming Language(s) :The LP formulation for EPA base and policy case runs typically has almost 2 million decision variables and 200,000 constraints. Due to the size of these problems, IPM requires a commercial grade LP solver. (Benchmarking tests performed by EPA's National Environmental Scientific Computing Center using research grade solvers yielded unacceptable results.) For EPA applications of IPM, DASH MP-XPRESS software (Windows based) and Mosek (Linux based) are used. In addition, separate software (MS Access, Fortran) generates solver input data in MPS (mathematical programming software) format, the standard format used by LP solvers.
  
  other_req :The LP formulation for EPA base and policy case runs typically has almost 2 million decision variables and 200,000 constraints. Due to the size of these problems, IPM requires a commercial grade LP solver. (Benchmarking tests performed by EPA's National Environmental Scientific Computing Center using research grade solvers yielded unacceptable results.) For EPA applications of IPM, DASH MP-XPRESS software (Windows based) and Mosek (Linux based) are used. In addition, separate software (MS Access, Fortran) generates solver input data in MPS (mathematical programming software) format, the standard format used by LP solvers.