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Assessment of Projected Temperature Impacts from Climate Change on the U.S. Electric Power Sector Using the Integrated Planning Model
Assessment of Projected Temperature Impacts from Climate Change on the U.S. Electric Power Sector Using the Integrated Planning Model.
Estimate impacts of climate change on electricity supply and demand in the United States
The energy sector is considered to be one of the most vulnerable to climate change. This study is a first-order analysis of the potential climate change impacts on the U.S. electric power sector, measuring the energy, environmental, and economic impacts of power system changes due to temperature changes under two emissions trajectories—with and without emissions mitigation. It estimates the impact of temperature change on heating and cooling degree days, electricity demand, and supply availability and efficiency. It then integrates these effects into a dispatch and capacity planning model to develop projections of investment decisions, emissions, system costs, and power prices for 32 U.S. regions. Without mitigation actions, total annual electricity production costs in 2050 are projected to be roughly 14% ($51 billion) higher to meet greater cooling demand than a control scenario that does not account for future temperature changes. For a scenario that includes global emissions mitigation, including a reduction in U.S. power sector emissions of 36% below 2005 levels by 2050, the increase in total annual electricity production costs associated with a different technology mix is approximately the same as the increase in system costs to satisfy the increased demand associated with unmitigated rising temperatures.