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Future U.S. air quality and health using GCAM-USA
Citation:
Loughlin, Dan. Future U.S. air quality and health using GCAM-USA. To be Presented at GCAM Community Modeling Meeting, College Park,MD, October 16 - 17, 2018.
Impact/Purpose:
The purpose of these slides are to present new developments and applications of the GCAM-USA model. The venue is the GCAM Community Modeling Meeting, an annual gathering of GCAM developers, users, stakeholders, and others evaluating how GCAM could support their work. Our modifications to the model and applications for air quality management are relatively unique within this community, so coordination is important.
Description:
These slides first provide a brief background on air quality management, including air pollution trends, non-attainment areas, and the role of states in developing strategies for achieving ambient air quality standards. Next, planning considerations are discussed, such as future threats to attainment. GCAM-USA is then applied to three related examples. In the first, the model is used to develop emission projections for several scenarios. In the next example, we examine state-level mortality costs associated with particulate matter exposure. An analytical approach is used to provide insights into why these costs are increasing or decreasing over time. The last example involves exploration of how population growth can affect air pollutant emissions into the future. National trends are examined, as are state and sectoral results. Observations are made regarding the efficacy of state-level emission caps for avoiding emission increases. Finally, key considerations, priorities for future development, and next steps are discussed.