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Modeling Adaptation as a Flow and Stock Decsion with Mitigation
Felgenhauer, T. Modeling Adaptation as a Flow and Stock Decsion with Mitigation. Adaptation Futures: 2012 International Conference on Climate Adaptation, Tucson, AZ, May 29 - 31, 2012.
This presentation will be given at the upcoming "Adaptation Futures: International Conference on Adaptation," in Tucson, AZ. A large number of adaptation practioners, academic researchers, and key experts in the field are expected to attend. The presentation, in combination with interactions with my colleagues, will serve to further disseminate the key conclusions of my research, expose me to the research of others, and allow the EPA to make new contacts in this field.
Mitigation and adaptation are the two key responses available to policymakers to reduce the risks of climate change. We model these two policies together in a new DICE-based integrated assessment model that characterizes adaptation as either short-lived flow spending or long-lived depreciable adaptation stock investments. Modeling results show that, although stock adaptation has a distinct advantage over flow adaptation for the simple reason that it is able to lower damages over a longer time period, the optimal portfolio of strategies is a combination of mitigation, flow adaptation, and stock adaptation. We demonstrate that the strategic tradeoff between mitigation and adaptation depends critically on the relative ratio of stock adaptation to flow adaptation, and that this ratio is driven primarily by the degree of substitutability between the adaptation types, the relative shares of stock versus flow (representing the relative effectiveness in the baseline), and on the existence of physical limits on damages that can be reduced by flow-type investments. The exploration of tradeoffs between adaptation and mitigation requires this disaggregation of adaptation by its dynamic properties.
URLs/Downloads:TUCSON CONFERENCE ON ADAPTATION -- REVISED.PPTX
Record Details:Record Type: DOCUMENT (PRESENTATION/SLIDE)
Organization:U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
NATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT RESEARCH LABORATORY
AIR POLLUTION PREVENTION AND CONTROL DIVISION
ATMOSPHERIC PROTECTION BRANCH