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Energy demand analytics using coupled technological and economic models
Steckley, S. G., D. S. Meade, C. SHAY LENNOX, K. C. Hoffman, D. H. Reid, AND B. C. Schoener. Energy demand analytics using coupled technological and economic models. Energy Journal. International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE), Cleveland, OH, 32(Special Issue):173-192, (2012).
Impacts of a range of policy scenarios on end-use energy demand are examined using a coupling of MARKAL, an energy system model with extensive supply and end-use technological detail, with Inforum LIFT, a large-scale model of the us. economy with inter-industry, government, and consumer behavioral dynamics. Responses in end-use energy demand are the result of energy efficiency improvements, fuel switching, and indirect economy-wide impacts. Carbon emissions reductions attributed to end-use demand response are analyzed and compared to carbon emissions reductions attributed to changes in the electric sector. Scenarios with the greatest impacts are a carbon tax case, resulting in a significant shift away from coal generation in the electric sector, and a normative case using a 7% discount rate for end-use technology investment decisions, resulting in increased adoption of energy efficient technology. In the course of addressing the specific EMF-25 scenarios and specified assumptions, a number of interesting issues were identified for follow-on analyses.