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Lake Michigan lake trout PCB model forecast post audit (oral presentation)
Kreis, R., X. Zhang, E. Murphy, K. Rygwelski, G. Warren, P. Horvatin, W. Melendez, T. Holsen, AND J. Pagano. Lake Michigan lake trout PCB model forecast post audit (oral presentation). Great Lakes Beach Association Joint Conference, Acme, MI, October 28 - 30, 2015.
Scenario forecasts for total PCBs in Lake Michigan (LM) lake trout were conducted using the linked LM2-Toxics and LM Food Chain models, supported by a suite of additional LM models. Efforts were conducted under the Lake Michigan Mass Balance Study and the post audit represents an approximate 20-year period since the conclusion of the study. Forecasts of 5 to 6-year old lake trout indicate that total PCB concentrations will continue to decrease and the Sports Fish Advisory Task Force’s goal for unrestricted consumption could be achieved in coming years, during the mid-2030s. Compared to PCB data for lake trout from the Great Lakes Fish Monitoring Program, the model forecasts and data exhibit good agreement, suggest that the model forecasts are reasonable, and that concentrations should continue to decline. Results are consistent with long-term decreases in other media and together indicate a considerable weight of evidence for continued decreases and improvements in the ecosystem from various actions. Variability and uncertainty are anticipated, subject to environmental changes, and we will present some information on the food web that may accelerate or exacerbate the anticipated future.