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Lake Michigan lake trout PCB model forecast post audit
Kreis, R., X. Zhang, E. Murphy, G. Warren, P. Horvatin, W. Melendez, T. Holsen, AND J. Pagano. Lake Michigan lake trout PCB model forecast post audit. IAGLR Conference, Burlington, VT, May 25 - 29, 2015.
Scenario forecasts for total PCBs in Lake Michigan (LM) lake trout were conducted using the linked LM2-Toxics and LM Food Chain models, supported by a suite of additional LM models. Efforts were conducted under the Lake Michigan Mass Balance Study and the post audit represents the period 1995-2013, since the conclusion of the study. Forecasts of 5 to 6-year old lake trout for two LM regions indicated that total PCB concentrations will continue to decrease and the Sports Fish Advisory Task Force’s goal for unrestricted consumption could be achieved in coming years, during the early to mid-2030s. Compared to PCB data for lake trout from the Great Lakes Fish Monitoring Program, the model forecasts and data exhibit good agreement, suggest that the model forecasts are reasonable, and that concentrations should continue to decline. Results are consistent with long-term decreases in other media and together indicate a considerable weight of evidence for continued decreases and improvements in the ecosystem from various actions. These are subject to assumptions and we will present some information on issues that may accelerate or exacerbate the anticipated future.