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The Terrestrial Investigation Model: A probabilistic risk assessment model for birds exposed to pesticides
Garber, K., E. Odenkirchen, AND M. Etterson. The Terrestrial Investigation Model: A probabilistic risk assessment model for birds exposed to pesticides. SETAC North America, Salt Lake City, UT, November 01 - 05, 2015.
One of the major recommendations of the National Academy of Science to the USEPA, NMFS and USFWS was to utilize probabilistic methods when assessing the risks of pesticides to federally listed endangered and threatened species. The Terrestrial Investigation Model (TIM, version 3.0) is one tool that may be used to address this recommendation. TIM integrates multiple pesticide exposure routes (i.e., diet, drinking water, dermal and inhalation) and avian behavior (e.g., bimodal feeding pattern, movement on and off of a treated field) to determine the probability of mortality to an individual. TIM may also be used to assess the probability and magnitude of mortality to a group of birds that have ranges overlapping with a treated field and its edge habitat. This poster presents analyses of pesticide risks to listed birds. This poster also discusses potential applications of TIM for considering sublethal effects to individuals and to a listed population. In terms of sublethal effects, exposure estimates generated by TIM can be used by MCnest to determine potential declines in annual fecundity. Tim-generated probabilities associated with mortality and MCnest fecundity projections can serve as inputs to additional models to assess potential risks at the population level.