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Implementation and evaluation of PM2.5 source contribution analysis in a photochemical model
Kwok, R., S. Napelenok, AND K. Baker. Implementation and evaluation of PM2.5 source contribution analysis in a photochemical model. ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. Elsevier Science Ltd, New York, NY, 80:398-407, (2013).
The National Exposure Research Laboratory' (NERL's) Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division (AMAD) conducts research in support of EPA's mission to protect human health and the environment. AMAD's research program is engaged in developing and evaluating predictive atmospheric models on all spatial and temporal scales for forecasting the Nation's air quality and for assessing changes in air quality and air pollutant exposures, as affected by changes in ecosystem management and regulatory decisions. AMAD is responsible for providing a sound scientific and technical basis for regulatory policies based on air quality models to improve ambient air quality. The models developed by AMAD are being used by EPA, NOAA, and the air pollution community in understanding and forecasting not only the magnitude of the air pollution problem, but also in developing emission control policies and regulations for air quality improvements
Source culpability assessments are useful for developing effective emissions control programs. The Integrated Source Apportionment Method (ISAM) has been implemented in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to track contributions from source groups and regions to ambient levels and deposited amounts of primary and secondary inorganic PM2.5. Confidence in this approach is established by comparing ISAM source contribution estimates to emissions zero-out simulations recognizing that these approaches are not always expected to provide the same answer. The comparisons are expected to be most similar for more linear processes such as those involving primary emissions of PM2.5 and most different for non-linear systems like ammonium nitrate formation. Primarily emitted PM2.5 (e.g. elemental carbon), sulfur dioxide, ammonia, and nitrogen oxide contribution estimates compare well to zero-out estimates for ambient concentration and deposition. PM2.5 sulfate ion relationships are strong, but nonlinearity is evident and shown to be related to aqueous phase oxidation reactions in the host model. ISAM and zero-out contribution estimates are less strongly related for PM2.5 ammonium nitrate, resulting from instances of non-linear chemistry and negative responses (increases in PM2.5 due to decreases in emissions). ISAM is demonstrated in the context of an annual simulation tracking well characterized emissions source sectors and boundary conditions shows source contributions generally following bulk model seasonal trends and spatially corresponding to the geographic distribution of identified emissions source sectors.