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Quantitative Adaptation Analysis for Long-term Coastal Adaptation and Emergency Response
Citation:
Yang, J., M. Liang, J. Weiss, D. Burnell, H. Wei, AND X. Wang. Quantitative Adaptation Analysis for Long-term Coastal Adaptation and Emergency Response. To be Presented at EWRI 2021, Milwakee, WI, June 07 - 11, 2021.
Impact/Purpose:
To communicate research results to technical communities on quantifying coastal vulnerability for long-term adaptation and emergency response
Description:
Coastal environmental vulnerability is underscored by disruptive hurricanes, including 23 named storms in the Atlantic basin by mid-September of 2020. Impacts on urban infrastructure and environmental assets are multi-dimensional. Here we analyze major types of coastal impacts and their interrelations in light of hydroclimate change and sea-level rise. Case studies along the U.S. Atlantic coast and the Gulf of Mexico show that increasing frequency and intensity of hurricanes in recent decades have led to more intense coastal precipitation, disruptive wind gusts, inundation, river and stream flooding, as well as salt-water intrusion into coastal aquifers. The impacts are projected to increase under projected future sea levels. Through the studies, integrated hydrological and engineering models have been developed for water resources adaptation and emergency response planning. One suite of models combines storm surge projections with emergency traffic simulation. Modeling results quantify time-series of surge wave propagation and areas of inundation, disruptive winds, and traffic congestion during evacuation. The second suite is for integrated simulation of storm surge inundation, stream flooding, intense precipitation, and saltwater intrusion for adaptation planning and design. Finally, the NOAA’s SLOSH model is coupled with sea-level rise projections to generate storm surge projections in a probability envelope, for analyzed future climate scenarios. Such modeling results yield a technical basis for adaptation analysis along coastal shorelines and also provide inputs to the other two suites of model simulations for specific planning and adaptation applications. The potentials and limitations of these three suites of models will be discussed when they are used in water resource adaptation and emergency planning. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this abstract are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.