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Inter-model comparison of simulated Gulf of Mexico hypoxia in response to reduced nutrient loads: Effects of phytoplankton and organic matter parameterization.
Citation:
Jarvis, B., J. Pauer, W. Melendez, Y. Wan, J. Lehrter, L. Lowe, AND C. Simmons. Inter-model comparison of simulated Gulf of Mexico hypoxia in response to reduced nutrient loads: Effects of phytoplankton and organic matter parameterization. ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING AND SOFTWARE. Elsevier Science Ltd, New York, NY, 151:105365, (2022). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105365
Impact/Purpose:
This manuscript addresses important differences in complex simulation models of northern Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia, examining how model structure and formulations affect simulation results. We applied two models developed by the Office of Research and Development (ORD), the Coastal Generalized Ecosystem Model (CGEM) and Gulf of Mexico Dissolved Oxygen Model (GoMDOM), to investigate how they differ in simulating hypoxia and their response to reduced nutrient load scenarios. Disparate response of hypoxia to reduced nutrient scenarios underscore the importance of considering multiple model results together to better guide future management decisions.
Description:
Complex simulation models are a valuable tool to inform nutrient management decisions aimed at reducing hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico, yet simulated hypoxia response to reduced nutrients varies greatly between models. We compared two biogeochemical models driven by the same hydrodynamics, the Coastal Generalized Ecosystem Model (CGEM) and Gulf of Mexico Dissolved Oxygen Model (GoMDOM), to investigate how they differ in simulating hypoxia and their response to reduced nutrients. Different phytoplankton nutrient kinetics produced 2–3 times more hypoxic area and volume on the western shelf in CGEM compared to GoMDOM. Reductions in hypoxic area were greatest in the western shelf, comprising 72% (∼4,200 km2) of the total shelfwide hypoxia response. The range of hypoxia responses from multiple models suggests a 60% load reduction may result in a 33% reduction in hypoxic area, leaving an annual hypoxic area of ∼9,000 km2 based on the latest 5-yr average (13,928 km2).
URLs/Downloads:
DOI: Inter-model comparison of simulated Gulf of Mexico hypoxia in response to reduced nutrient loads: Effects of phytoplankton and organic matter parameterization.