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Future in-state and out-of-state air pollutant emissions under decarbonization pathways for Massachusetts
Citation:
Huang, K., Dan Loughlin, AND M. Eckelman. Future in-state and out-of-state air pollutant emissions under decarbonization pathways for Massachusetts. 20th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, November 01 - 05, 2021.
Impact/Purpose:
This presentation will provide an overview of progress and lessons learned in the use of the GCAM-USA model to assess the carbon dioxide and air pollutant emission reductions associated with Boston and Massachusetts' Greenhouse Gas mitigation plans. The results of this work will be used within air quality modeling to examine air quality impacts. This analysis provides an example that can be used elsewhere to explore the air quality impacts of mitigation strategies.
Description:
Many U.S. states have adopted the goal of achieving carbon neutrality in the coming decades. Pathways for achieving this goal would likely yield a reduction of air pollutant emissions as well. We assess several state-level decarbonization pathways for Massachusetts, including electrification of buildings and transportation and decarbonization of the electric grid, estimating their impacts on in- and out-of-state emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and several air pollutants. The analysis applies the GCAM-USA integrated assessment model with state-level resolution and considers interactions between state and existing regional policies such as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and the Transportation and Climate Initiative. The most aggressive state decarbonization pathway that was examined would achieve a 65% of reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050, indicating the need for further decarbonization options within the industry and non-road transportation sectors. The air pollution co-benefits under these decarbonization pathways are significant, especially for PM2.5. While policies focusing only on MA are shown to produce in-state reductions of CO2 and air pollutant emissions, a portion of these reductions was countered by emission increases in other states, indicating the need for coordinated planning to prevent leakage.
